Delusions of Bitcoin Grandeur

Published by Skeptikos on Mar 2, 2015

How well do Bitcoin experts know Bitcoin? Not well at all, according to a set of predictions by 48 "experts" last year.

Asked to predict the price of a Bitcoin in one year, all but one overestimated its future value, with more than half getting the price wrong by at least an order of magnitude.

And I calculated that with their low end estimates.

Some of the predictions were so wrong — more than 100 or 200 times the actual price of a Bitcoin — that I couldn't fit them on the graph:

If you thought Bitcoin enthusiasts had a good handle on the social mechanics of Bitcoin, now's a good time to think again.

(The R code for this post is on GitHub.)